The rate of the future before us

 

All of these people are imagined by GAN (Generative adversarial network). The AI generates images based on an analysis of portraits, so although these people look incredibly real, this person does not exist. None of them do.

Images like this prove to show how far technology already has come. Apart from making people up, AI can provide more accurate medical diagnosis than humans (Wiredelta, 2019), has a better track record in driving vehicles in comparison to us skeleton-meatsacks (Tesla, 2020) and it can already beat us in GO, which is thought to be such a complicated strategy board game that it has more potential legal board positions than we have atoms in our Universe (Moyer, 2016). AI can create animals, places, structures, strategies, even art. It can write articles and make music, so even the things we like to think that make us human, the things that separate us from the rest, no longer make us as exceptional as we had previously wagered.

The speed of it has been quite astonishing, too. Back in 2014 the bright minds predicted it will take at least another ten years for the AI to get to a human level in GO (Bostrom, 2014). Only two years later Google's AI Deepmind's AlphaGO won the world human champion 4-1. The people predicting this were professionals. However, even they predicted it eight years off for the benefit of the AI.

 

Photo by Joakim Honkasalo on Unsplash

 

Accelerating circumstances

Tough times are an incredibly effective innovation incubators, as many of us have witnessed in the last six months. Suddenly the second wave of digitalization is not just all talk and little action, but it's actually happening here and now as a result of our "normal" choices being currently very limited. In the last few months we've grown accustomed to attending online classes, online parent-teacher meetings, online hobby groups. Online sales have increased 75% in Finland (Juvonen, 2020) during the corona and a similar trend is to be seen in many other parts of the world. There are countless new health tech companies out there that were nothing but mere daydreams still 12 months ago. People are finding new home-based solutions to the things they previously outsourced, and getting creative while doing so. 

 

 

According to a Dutch historian Rutger Bregman, challenging times make us better towards each other. "Crisis [bombing of London in 1940] brought out the not the worst, but the best in people," he writes in his most recent book "Humankind" and goes on explaining how the experts had previously assumed masses were to behave in a cowardly and panicky manner in a crisis situation. The outcome was quite the opposite: "There was no sign of mass hysteria. On the contrary, in places that had just been hit, inhabitants felt relief. "Neighbours were wonderfully helpful," and "considering the severity and duration of the mental strain, the general attitude was remarkably steady and restrained." (Bregman, 2019)

 

Humans are often underachieving when trying to understand the rate at which the future is being created. We look back at our development rate and simply try to mirror it into the future, while forgetting the future behaves differently than the past. Where it took us as species something like 60 000 to 90 000 years to get to the point of agriculture, it took us only another 10 000 to get to the point of industrialization. From there, it took us only a hundred plus years to go to the Moon. Right now there are people thinking how to make a brain–computer interface that eventually just might make talking obsolete. The rate is constantly speeding up, because we are constantly building upon knowledge of what works and what doesn't. The speed could be even more impressive, if we weren't so private about sharing what we know.

 

The great crises filters

 

Looking back in hunter-gatherer days, humans used to live in small numbers. Knowledge was passed to anyone in the immediate vicinity of oneself, not necessarily to the brightest mind, either. When agriculture took over, we started to stay put and cities were born. In populated areas people mingled a lot more, in many cases learning what they deemed interesting or useful, while getting more nutrition making the brain more effective, too. Printing took sharing knowledge further in space and time, and the age of information just hit the jackpot. Now we reach beyond ourselves, constantly utilizing the knowledge available, but at the same time limiting our species' growth by claiming ownership on intellectual property.

 

Although AI still at times showcases as an adorable little idiot, there will be a point in which it surpasses us and will make us look like cute little hominids, who can't get their shit straight. According to tech genius Elon Musk, AI will overtake humans by 2025. (Cuthbertson, 2020) Before Musk's claim, it was believed the tipping point would happen around 2045. The current rate is, however, exponential and what was believed to be true three years ago simply does not apply today.

 

Although companies working on AI aren't necessarily open sourcing their development, it will only take one to win the race. AI's strength is in sharing knowledge and having no shame nor pride. It instantly learns from its mistakes. Much like humans, who have been benefiting from the knowledge gathered by others, AI does this a hundred times better. At the same time it has significantly fewer limitations what comes to memory, connectivity, reliability and emotions dictating decision-making (pride/shame).

It might be that the corona crisis is just the beginning of the great filter to our species. There are the environmental crisis, the biodiversity crisis AND the technological singularity crisis that are following this first practice round. Perhaps a crisis after another is what is needed to bring the best out of our species in the end. Besides AI can always rest assured, as if we humans end up failing ourselves, AI can always build us back up for their own little entertainment.

Sources:

Bostrom, Nick; 2014 "Superintelligence"

 

Bregman, Rutger; 2019 "Humankind"

 

Cuthbertson, Anthony; 2020, Independent (referred Oct 20. 2020)

Elon Musk claims AI will overtake humans 'in less than five years'

Juvonen, Anna, 2020, Kauppalehti (referred Oct 20. 2020)

Verkkokauppa pomppasi 75%

Moyer, 2016, The Atlantic (referred Oct 20. 2020)
How Google's AlphaGo Beat a Go World Champion

 

Tesla Vehicle Safety Report, 2020 (referred Oct 20. 2020)

Vehicle Safety Report

Wiredelta, 2019 (referred Oct 20. 2020)

5 Things AI does better than humans 2019